10-02-2009, 02:17 PM
Thanks, I'm glad my brainstorming finally made sense to someone besides me. These last 10 days of passage have really cemented any previous notions that I have had. It looks like the Clearwater is running about 11% behind last year, plus it looks like there is going to be way more A-runs on the Cw than normal, so I think big fish will be much harder to come by. I like how it matches up with all these jack salmon that we had this year. I was afraid that IFG used too many jacks for spawning, but this makes it all look legitimate. Looks like there are really just billions of salmon and steelhead out in the ocean. Given the strength of this year class, I look to see the next 2 years be excellent for lots of big fish. But lets have fun with the silver bullets while we got em!
Now that I have put in my most recent nickels worth, let me answer your question. If you hadn't thrown that "clean and easy" part in there I would say yes. But there is nothing clean and easy about it. It involves pulling up all the PIT tag data for the time frame you are interested in, and going in and visually checking the travel times on each PIT tag. I have heard a little bit of reporting #'s on A-run and B-run fish, but I guarentee they aren't doing it the same way as me. For Bonneville, I think they just count everything that crosses the dam Aug 26 or later as B-run. So I guess that's a clean and easy way of doing it, and its pretty close to a degree. But I can tell ya that there are plenty of B-runs that cross before Aug 26, and plenty of A-runs that cross after Aug 26 every year. Maybe it all evens out in the end??
At any rate, I sure wish IFG hadn't opened their big mouths and forecasted the biggest steelhead run ever at Lower Granite. I had my fingers crossed for it too, but I'm beginning to think that their forecasts are just propaganda to sell tags, and usually just end up jinxing us when we have a good thing going. Who said counting your chickens before they're hatched couldn't be lucrative? Not that I care that much, I catch my fish either way, but I like to see records broken, and I know lots of people who get really butt hurt when forecasts fall short.
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Now that I have put in my most recent nickels worth, let me answer your question. If you hadn't thrown that "clean and easy" part in there I would say yes. But there is nothing clean and easy about it. It involves pulling up all the PIT tag data for the time frame you are interested in, and going in and visually checking the travel times on each PIT tag. I have heard a little bit of reporting #'s on A-run and B-run fish, but I guarentee they aren't doing it the same way as me. For Bonneville, I think they just count everything that crosses the dam Aug 26 or later as B-run. So I guess that's a clean and easy way of doing it, and its pretty close to a degree. But I can tell ya that there are plenty of B-runs that cross before Aug 26, and plenty of A-runs that cross after Aug 26 every year. Maybe it all evens out in the end??
At any rate, I sure wish IFG hadn't opened their big mouths and forecasted the biggest steelhead run ever at Lower Granite. I had my fingers crossed for it too, but I'm beginning to think that their forecasts are just propaganda to sell tags, and usually just end up jinxing us when we have a good thing going. Who said counting your chickens before they're hatched couldn't be lucrative? Not that I care that much, I catch my fish either way, but I like to see records broken, and I know lots of people who get really butt hurt when forecasts fall short.
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