05-06-2009, 04:14 AM
Well, what we are seeing on the camera actually could mean a variety of things. Here's what it means to me. The jack run usually seems to peak about 10-17 days after the adult fish peak. This years jack count (year to date) is already the second highest on record.
Everybody puts alot of stock into how many jacks come over each year, saying that it tells how many adult fish will be coming back the next year. Statisticly, there is a pretty good realtionship there, and it is a really good sign. But it's nothing to start placing any bets over, and it also means that there is going to be that many less fish coming back the next year as adults. There have been planty of forecasts based on strong jack returns that have fell significantly short. Look at this year. Last year we had the second biggest jack return (2000 was the biggest) in recent years, and it looks to me like there is no way we are even going to come clost to 128,000 fish over LG.
Nevertheless, I'm pretty excited to see it. It seems to me like the adult run is peaking right now (but hopefully it is just getting starting and just increases over the next two weeks), and so that tells me the biggest part of the jack run is yet to come. If that is the case, then the we could definately have the biggest jack count on record this year. That would mean the the forecaster dudes would likely be predicting the biggest run Lower Granite has ever seen next year!
[signature]
Everybody puts alot of stock into how many jacks come over each year, saying that it tells how many adult fish will be coming back the next year. Statisticly, there is a pretty good realtionship there, and it is a really good sign. But it's nothing to start placing any bets over, and it also means that there is going to be that many less fish coming back the next year as adults. There have been planty of forecasts based on strong jack returns that have fell significantly short. Look at this year. Last year we had the second biggest jack return (2000 was the biggest) in recent years, and it looks to me like there is no way we are even going to come clost to 128,000 fish over LG.
Nevertheless, I'm pretty excited to see it. It seems to me like the adult run is peaking right now (but hopefully it is just getting starting and just increases over the next two weeks), and so that tells me the biggest part of the jack run is yet to come. If that is the case, then the we could definately have the biggest jack count on record this year. That would mean the the forecaster dudes would likely be predicting the biggest run Lower Granite has ever seen next year!
[signature]